Tactical Thinking - Asking the Right Question

There's a favourite puzzle of mine, called 'Two Guards, Two Doors.' It goes like this; you have died and you find yourself in an antechamber with two doors and two guards. One door is the door to heaven, one door is the door to hell and they look exactly the same. Each door has a guard. One guard always lies and one guard always tells the truth. You are only allowed to ask one guard one question to find out which is the right door. What question would you ask?

I'll give the answer at the bottom of the post. But I like this puzzle, because it illustrates that just because someone has a fixed position, does not mean that they will give a fixed answer. It's all about asking the right question.

So why am I pondering this? Well, the reason is the student protests. What has intrigued me about them, is not that they're happening, but that they're being reported and televised. Do you remember the junior doctors' march of 2007 that had the Queens' surgeons in it, no less and 17 000 others? You wouldn't unless you were a doctor. There was virtually no coverage of it on the TV; some even said that the government had slapped a D notice on it (this is usually reserved for military sensitive info). Whatever happened, it went past with barely a murmur from the press. But the student protests are getting coverage. And it's in this that I think I can see a chink of hope for the NHS.

Here's the received wisdom on the future of the NHS. We have three main parties; Lib Dems, Conservatives and Labour. Those of us who keep a close eye on politicians, know that practically speaking, there is barely a fag's paper worth between the three parties on the NHS and that they are being leaned on to at least part privatise it. Therefore, the obvious conclusion is that the NHS is doomed and there is no point protesting. But what has not been asked is; why is this the case?

The reason that this is the case is because all three saw that favouring private enterprise, or at least keeping your mouth shut on it, was the key to power. In the case of New Labour, cozying up to big business provided money for their electoral campaign of '97 and attracting voters from business. For the Conservatives, favouring the market is their natural position. For the Lib Dems, keeping their mouth shut on awkward issues is their key to sharing power with the Conservatives.

So what, I hear you say. But the point is this; to two of those parties, the privatisation of the NHS is a secondary concern. Their first concern (as is the first concern of all parties) is gaining and holding onto power. The other thing is that all of these parties have a vested interest in appearing to favour the NHS as a public service. If the public really understood what was happening, they would be shot down in flames.

When Labour was in power, NHS campaigners were in the worst of all possible positions. We had a party in opposition who favoured the market and we had a party in power who were meant to favour the NHS as a public service, but in reality were favouring the market. This meant in terms of media reporting that the view was pretty monolithic; changes in the NHS were either hyped up as the best thing since sliced bread, or just not reported on at all. Those of a left wing leaning were faced with the dilemma of supporting the NHS, or supporting their party.

Now the position has changed. The Conservatives are in power. It's generally understood they favour the market. Labour are out of power and campaigning for the NHS against privatisation is very much their kind of stamping ground. There's a lot of votes in it, especially from those who voted Lib Dem to avoid voting Conservative. It's just working out whether sticking with their market pals, or supporting the NHS, is their road to electoral success. And the coverage of the student marches may indicate that protest is popular again in left wing circles.

I think now might be a good time to protest. To send letters to Labour MPs about the White Paper. To have marches through London.It might have a chance of getting TV coverage this time.To remind Nick Clegg and Vince Cable that they signed up to the junior doctors' march back in 2007. And we might at last get the message out to the public about what's really going on in the NHS. When we manage that, we will have a chance of saving it. And it may turn out, contrary to all expectation, that having a Conservative government in power will be the saving of the NHS, rather than its demise.




Oh, and the answer to the riddle? You say to the guard,'If I asked the other guard which door was the one to heaven, which one would he point to?' Then whatever door he points to, you take the other door. Think about it..